It's been far too long but the Touchdown Times is back for the biggest game (and betting event) of the year! In this article, I'm going to give an overview of each team and their recent form, before comparing each team's roster broken down by position. After that, I'll give my official prediction for the game as well as go over my bets for the big game. Let's get into it!
Chiefs Overview and Recent Form
It's officially gotten to the point where we can pencil the Chiefs into the Super Bowl every year. After limping into the playoffs with a struggling offense, the Chiefs have come alive and Mahomes has been perfect throughout the postseason to reach his 4th Superbowl in the past 5 years. One of the craziest Mahomes stats is that he played his first playoff road game since he took over as the starter, and then casually beat Josh Allen and a red-hot Bills team as well as Lamar Jackson and the best defense in football in hostile environments.
Offensively, as long as Mahomes is healthy this team can win any game. He might be the most gifted football thrower ever, with the accuracy and improvisational skills of Aaron Rodgers, the killer instinct of Brady, and an arm strong enough to throw the ball 75+ yards down the field on the run. Travis Kelce has looked like the player we've grown accustomed to seeing the past couple of years after a shaky and inconsistent regular season, and he's complimented in the passing game by RAC monster Rashee Rice. Isiah Pacheco has been the heartbeat of this team and runs angry like Marshawn Lynch. However, outside of these 4 players, the Chiefs haven't found much success, and to beat the Niners someone else is going to have to step up and make a big-time play like MVS did against the Ravens.
As good as 15 for the Chiefs is, the real reason the Chiefs are at this point is because of Coach Spag's defense. They've been a dominant unit all year and if they had any other quarterback in the league they would've gotten a lot more recognition. In their three playoff games this season, the Chiefs' defense held the Dolphins and Tyreek Hill to 7 points (1 turnover), the Bills and Josh Allen to 24 points, and the Ravens and MVP Lamar Jackson to 10 points (3 Turnovers). Chris Jones remains a game wrecker but this defense also features stars like Trent McDuffie (first-team All-Pro), Willie Gay, and L'Jarius Sneed who will need to have big games if they want to slow down the 9ers offense.
If there's one weak spot on this Chiefs' defense it's their run defense. The Ravens inexplicably abandoned the run in the AFC Championship but the Bills were able to find success against the Chiefs defense, accumulating 182 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. On the bright side, the Chiefs pass defense has been lights out all postseason and has made big plays when they needed to such as giving Josh Allen nowhere to go during crunch time and picking off Lamar in the red zone.
Offensively the Chiefs have come alive and at times seem to be unstoppable. As mentioned earlier they look nothing like the unit that struggled plenty during the regular season and outside of one mistake, they have been pretty much perfect. The Chiefs will probably be missing all pro guard Joe Thuney and his loss will be felt at times, but Mahomes and Andy Reid have had plenty of time to prepare a contingency plan to accommodate for that loss.
Niners Overview and Recent Form
The Niners conquered their NFC championship demons this year in dramatic fashion. After losing the NFC Championship the previous two years due to a brutal dropped pick and serious injuries to their QBs leaving them severely handicapped, the Niners came back from a 17-point halftime deficit to set up a rematch of Superbowl LIV.
The Niners were the best offensive team in the league this season by almost every metric and can score in a variety of ways. Their skill players could be considered the best of all time featuring the best running back and soon-to-be OPOY, Christian McCaffrey, star wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, swiss-army knife Kyle Juszczyk, and stud tight end George Kittle. The Niners also boast the best LT in football in Trent Williams who helps set the tone for the team and is a nightmare matchup for whoever is lined up against him.
Distributing the ball to all these playmakers is 2022 Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, who would be considered a top 10 QB in the league if it weren't for his draft pedigree. Purdy finished the season with over 4k yards and 30 touchdowns, as well as stepped up for his team in both postseason games when they needed him to, leading a game-winning drive against the Packers and dominating the second half against the Lions.
Defensively, this defense does not lack star power and features the most expensive defensive player in the game in edge rusher Nick Bosa, as well as three-time first-team all-pro Fred Warner and his running mate Dre Greenlaw. Warner flies across the field and Bosa and the defensive line love to get after the quarterback and force negative plays.
Despite all these star players, the Niners have needed some heroics to get to this point and have come out flat in both of their playoff games thus far. The star-studded defense has been vulnerable against the run all year, a trend that has continued into the playoffs as they have been sliced up by Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jameson Williams. They've also allowed plenty of explosive plays not only in the run game but also in the passing game as well, something that the Chiefs will look to exploit with Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco.
The offense showed some rust in their first playoff game against the Packers but started slow again vs the Lions, scoring only 7 points in the first half against a Lions team that was not known for its defense this season. If it weren't for some questionable and reckless coaching decisions by Dan Campbell, I might be writing about the Lions right now instead of the Niners. The Niners cannot afford to come out slow against the Chiefs, Andy Reid, Mahomes, and Co. are too experienced and too good to let the Niners hang around like the Packers and Lions did.
Positional Comparison
Quarterback:
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
San Fransisco 49ers: Brock Purdy
Purdy is a lot better than he's given credit for by the media and is probably a top 10 QB when everyone is healthy. Kyle Shanahan has plenty of confidence in his skills and has opened the playbook in a way he hasn't done ever since becoming the HC of the Niners back in 2017. However, Brock Purdy is no Mahomes. To be fair, there is nobody in the same tier as Mahomes, and Mahomes on his C day is still more than capable of beating anybody.
The Verdict: Heavy Edge KC
Runningback:
Kansas City Chiefs: Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
San Fransisco 49ers: CMC, Kyle Juszczyk
Isiah Pacheco is the closest thing we have in the league to Marshawn Lynch right now. Pacheco runs angry and never gets taken down without a fight. Pacheco is also more than capable of catching passes out of the backfield and his aggressive running style is perfect for the redzone. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is nothing special and if Jerrick Mckinnon is activated off IR and can go, CEH will probably be a non-factor.
Similar to how Purdy isn't Mahomes, Pacheco isn't in the same tier as CMC, the probable OPOY. CMC is the complete package as a running back. He's a homerun threat who's also able to get the ugly yards and is a massive threat in the passing game -- either in the backfield or lined up as a receiver. Juszczyk plays all over the field and is valuable in the short-yardage game, blocking game, and pass game and has made plenty of memorable catches throughout his Niners career.
The Verdict: Heavy Edge SF
Wide Receiver:
Kansas City Chiefs: Rashee Rice, MVS, Mecole Hardman, Kadarious Toney?
San Fransisco 49ers: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Ray Ray Mcloud
These two units are as polar opposites as we'll see in this game. Outside of Rashee Rice, the Chiefs have struggled to get any sort of consistent production from their WRs and have faced a myriad of problems ranging from drops to costly fumbles, to just not getting open.
Everyone knows how good Deebo is and when he's hurt his absence is felt by the Niners offense, but the under-the-radar storyline this season has been Brock Purdy's connection with Brandon Aiyuk. Purdy has complete confidence in Aiyuk -- even when he's not open as shown in the NFC championship -- and the duo combined for almost 1400 yards in the regular season. Aiyuk is in line for a big payday this season and expect to see him make at least one big play on Sunday.
The Verdict: Heavy Edge SF
Tight End:
Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce, Noah Gray
San Fransisco 49ers: George Kittle
As mentioned in the overview section, Travis Kelce has made his presence felt this postseason. The co-president of TEU's connection with Mahomes looks as good as it ever has and he is the player that has tormented DCs over the past season, accumulating a stat line of 23/262/3 in KC's three postseason games thus far. His backup, Noah Gray won't turn any heads but he is a competent backup tight end and finds ways to get open in the red zone.
The other co-president of TEU will be playing for the Niners and is probably the best all-around TE in football. Kittle is a rack monster and is the best blocking tight end in the game, consistently pancake-blocking defenders to spring explosive runs and screenplays. The Niners will occasionally line up their fullback Kyle Juszczyk as their second TE or as their primary TE when Kittle needs a breather.
Both Travis Kelce and George Kittle are the class of the NFL when it comes to the Tight End position, with Kelce being a better receiver and Kittle being a better blocker, I'm going to call this one a push.
The Verdict: Even
Offensive Line:
Key Players:
Kansas City Chiefs: Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney
San Fransisco 49ers: Trent Williams
The big offensive line storyline is the status of Chief's all-pro Left Guard Joe Thuney. Thuney, who is dealing with a pec injury, is trending like he will not be able to play and a lot more pressure is going to be on star center Creed Humphrey to pick up the slack in the interior of the Chiefs OL.
Trent Williams, the best LT in football, moves like he is 150 pounds lighter and hits like he's 50 pounds heavier. He's rarely beat as a pass blocker and mauls defenders in the run game, look for the Niners to run behind him a lot to try to generate chunk plays.
The Verdict: Slight Edge Niners (PFF Grades them Higher, one of the only times I'll rely on solely PFF)
Defensive Line:
Key Players:
Kansas City Chiefs: Chris Jones, George Karlaftis
San Fransisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Chase Young
Chris Jones is conservatively a top 3 defensive tackle in the league and he can single-handedly win a game -- a compliment typically reserved for offensive players. As a DT he should be able to dominate the Niners's interior OL and for the Chiefs to have a chance to slow down this Niners' offense, he needs to cause multiple negative plays. George Karlaftis will be coming off the edge and had a very solid second year in the league finishing with 10.5 sacks.
The Niners' defense is built around getting pressure with their DL and it's an easy argument to say Bosa is a top 5 edge in the league and arguably the best. His running mate on the other side is trade deadline acquisition Chase Young, who has no shortage of talent but allegedly leaves his assignment to chase making the big play. Inside, Arik Armstead could be in for a big game. With Thuney out, the Chiefs IOL should be the soft spot for this Niners pass rush.
The Verdict: Edge Niners
Linebackers:
Kansas City Chiefs: Willie Gay, Nick Bolton
San Fransisco 49ers: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw
Willie Gay and Nick Bolton are a linebacking unit that has flown under the radar all season. They did a great job limiting the Ravens' passing game over the middle in the AFC Championship. Unfortunately for them, they're being compared to arguably the best LB in the game and Fred Warner, whose running mate, Dre Greenlaw, flies around the field.
The Verdict: Solid Edge Niners
Secondary:
Kansas City Chiefs: L'Jarius Sneed, Justin Reid, Mike Edwards, Trent McDuffie
San Fransisco 49ers: Charvarius Ward, Ji'Ayir Brown, Tashaun Gipson Sr.
The Chiefs cornerback duo of L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie have been giving offenses fits all year. They have a big task ahead of them attempting to slow down the loaded Niners WRs but luckily they have a very solid safety in Justin Reid to help them try to contain the Niners' quick pass game. On the flip side, The Niners' secondary is the weak spot of their defense, usually relying on their elite pass rush and linebacking unit to cover for them
The Verdict: Heavy Edge Chiefs
Prediction + Bets
The Niners have the best roster in football and one of the best offensive minds of all time. Multiple successful coaches have come from the Shanahan tree and the Niners offense can beat you in a variety of ways. Defensively, they're able to force turnovers and at their best cause multiple negative plays a game.
The Chiefs don't have the offensive firepower or defensive star power that the Niners have, but they do have the best QB in football, a top 3 coach in football in Andy Reid, and the most underrated defensive unit in football.
Despite the Niners' edge in talent, they really have struggled in the playoffs and have come out slow in both games. Honestly, they probably wouldn't be in this game if the Lions and Dan Campbell weren't reckless in the second half with their 4th down decisions or ran the ball more than 8 times when they were up big.
The Chiefs meanwhile have started every game strong, scoring a touchdown on all of their opening drives thus far, and have had only one mistake in three games (the goal line fumble by Jet Legend Mecole Hardman). Mahomes and Andy Reid are also too good to give the game away like the Lions did, and the Niners will have to show up for all 4 quarters if they want to have a chance at winning. As much as I want the Niners to beat crybaby Mahomes, I just don't think they can pull it off with how they've looked this playoff run.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Niners 28
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Chiefs ML @ +105, 1u
- See reasoning above.
- There should be a point in time when the Niners ML will have plus odds and I will be looking to hedge and secure some guaranteed profit
Isiah Pacheco ATTD @ -120, 1.2u
- Death, Taxes, Isiah Pacheco running angry for touchdowns
- Already has 3 touchdowns in 3 games this postseason
- Niners defense struggles a bit against the run
- Pacheco is also a decent sized part of the pass production for the Chiefs in the red zone
Travis Kelce o70.5 Rec Yards @ -115, 1.15u
- Kelce's come alive this postseason and has covered this line in all three games
- Still Mahomes go-to target when he's under pressure, something that should happen a lot against this Niners' pass rush
- Niners also just got torched by Sam Laporta for 97 yards
Isiah Pacheco o66.5 Rush Yards @ -120, 1.2u
- As mentioned earlier, the Niners defense is vulnerable in the run game
- David Montgomery and Aaron Jones have torched this defense this postseason
- Pacheco covered this line in every postseason game thus far
- Could see Chiefs lean on Pacheco to dominate Time of Possession and keep the Niners potent offense off the field
- Also will keep the Niners pass rush honest
CMC o90.5 Rush Yards @ -115, 1.15u
- Like the Niners, the Chiefs' defense can struggle against the run
- CMC has rushed for 90+ yards in both playoff games
- Focal point of the Niners' offense is the ground game and establishing the run
- Led the league in Rushing EPA
Fred Warner o8.5 Tackles + Assists @ +115, 1u
- The Chiefs will look to attack the middle of the field with Pacheco runs and quick passes over the middle
- Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton had 16 and 11 tackles respectively playing in a role that will be similar to what Fred Warner will play today
Brock Purdy o3.5 Rushing Attempts @ +128, 1u
- Purdy's not afraid to use his legs to extend plays or get some yards
- His running game was a big reason the Niners were able to secure the comeback against the Lions in the NFC Championship
- Covered this line in both playoff games
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